There is a great deal going on in this universe at present, arguably more and certainly at a faster pace than ever before; remarkable developments in information and communications technologies along with changes in transport also mean that there is a greater global discussion buzz than one could have dreamed of only a couple of decades ago.

What is surprising is how comparatively little demographics feature in these discussions. Indeed demographics are often the absent dimension in many policy debates. To cite two examples, how often have population issues been raised in the course of the WTO Doha Round negotiations? Or indeed in discussions about the CAP? And yet demographics are fundamental, especially as the planet is undergoing arguably its most profound demographic transformation in over two centuries.

In 1750, the global population was distributed as follows:

• Africa: 13.4%
• Asia: 63.5%
• Europe: 20.6%
• Latin America and the Caribbean: 02.0%
• North America: 00.3%
• Oceania: 00.3%

In the ensuing two centuries, to 1950, Asia’s and Europe’s shares stayed constant, hovering at the 60% and 20% marks respectively. The big decrease was in Africa, which by 1950 had fallen to 8%, while the percentages in the “new world” increased (partly, of course, due to the slave trade.)

In 1900 and at the zenith of its power, the European continent accounted for 24.7%. A century later, Europe’s share of the global population halved to 12.4%, while on the basis of current demographic trends it will reduce further to 7%. Asia’s share of the global population will continue to stay constant at roughly 60%. While Europe is experiencing the biggest change in one direction (down), Africa is undergoing the biggest change in the other direction (up). To put it in numbers: Africa’s population currently stands at some 920 million; by 2030 it will have increased to 1.5 billion and by 2050 it will be very close to 2.0 billion. While Asia’s share of global GDP has increased considerably in recent decades and is slated to continue increasing, Africa’s share of global GDP has declined and currently stands at 3%. By 2050 Africa will represent 20% of humanity. There is nothing to indicate at the moment that Africa’s share of global GDP is likely to increase substantially.

There are of course many other issues to discuss in relation to the global food situation. But this should serve as a reality check, indeed a wake-up call. Demographics, as Auguste Comte said, is destiny.

Will changes in demographics provide a cause for food crises in the years ahead? Let us count the ways!