Thinking about food security means thinking about the worst case: bad harvests in Europe combined with export restrictions abroad. But considering the historic volatility of EU production and anticipated future levels of EU production, nobody would have to go hungry in Europe. This would still hold true if the EU liberalised agricultural market access. In the case of persistent and severe production shortfalls, countries could easily expand cultivated areas, use more intensive farming methods and shift production patterns to increase yields. In particular, curbing meat, milk, and dairy production could free up capacity for growing basic grains. 51 million hectares were used as pastures and permanent meadows in 2005, compared to 100 million hectares of arable land; in addition, much arable land serves feed stuff production. In other words, the European production potential that could be easily unlocked is reassuring. This would not be desirable from an environmental perspective, but tolerable under catastrophic conditions.

Tariffs and subsidies coupled to production stimulate sectors that are not essential for food security. Furthermore, they are conducive to intensive monoculture that is dependent on inputs (energy, seeds, plant protection products) and vulnerable to plant and animal diseases. Instead of pushing for traditional production-stimulating instruments, those worried about the remote possibility of food shortages should support targeted policies. This includes boosting public food reserves, improving resistance of farming systems to diseases (notably by enhancing biodiversity) and diminishing agriculture's dependence on potentially endangered energy supplies.

A small aside to counter a misleading argument: Food is not oil (or gas). There are much fewer actual and potential suppliers of oil on the world market, and oil imports hinge on long-term contracts, pipelines, and suitable refineries. As a result, importers become dependent on their suppliers. Even if suppliers are reliable, oil deliveries can more easily be interrupted by third parties. Given that EU production potential in oil is much further away from autarky, incomparably graver problems would be created should imports stay out. The analogy between food and energy security is a misleading populism.

A Briefing written by Valentin Zahrnt called 'Reforming the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy: Health Check, Budget Review, Doha Round' is available here.