On November 24-26, 2008, the German Marshall Fund co-sponsored a conference with Wilton Park entitled ’Feeding The World: Are New Global Agricultural Policies Needed?’ The full conference report is available here.

If the world is to have enough food to feed an estimated population of 9 billion in 20-30 years time, significant changes will be needed and hard policy choices will have to be made. Productivity needs to be dramatically increased, but climate change, the increased scarcity of resources - including water, land, and phosphates - and the variability of fuel and other input costs will present challenges to our collective ability to produce this additional food. The Wilton Park conference assessed the key challenges, looking beyond the recent price spikes, and identified a number of national and international policy priorities.

What changes to national and international agricultural policies will be needed in order for 9 billion people to be fed in 2050? Looking 20-30 years ahead, with up to 3 billion more people to feed and an increase in protein-rich diets, it is estimated that an increase of 80-100% in the amount of food currently produced will be required to meet expected demand. There are real questions about how this can be accomplished given the predicted long-term impacts of climate change, which could threaten production in key parts of the world and create greater pressures on water availability. Whilst the price spikes over recent months may be a blip or cyclical , ’business as usual’ is not the answer. The widespread use of export bans in the recent food crisis will have a long-term impact on the willingness of importers to depend on trade, while many countries are likely to increase their efforts to become more ‘self-sufficient’ or buy in production capacity from other countries, posing significant potential downsides for those least able to increase production.

Some increase in the use of genetically modified crops is probably necessary to increase production and productivity.

Production increases will be constrained by the availability of water and land for food, competing now with demand for biofuels and the need to avoid deforestation. To increase productivity there are strong calls for the public and private sectors to work together in both developed and developing countries to undertake more research and development in plant breeding, seed-coating and disease resistance (e.g. against wheat rust). Some increase in the use of genetically modified crops is probably necessary to increase production and productivity. Technical developments such as precision farming and reducing post-harvest loss will also be critical. In addition, in many developing countries improved infrastructure and access to markets (roads and finance) would help farmers to increase production. Agricultural extension work needs to become fashionable again, particularly enabling farmers in developing countries - and in Africa in particular - to use the many simple but highly effective technologies already available.

Ongoing, and perhaps even increasing, volatility of prices for agricultural commodities can be expected, given weather-related variations in yields and the variability of the oil price, to which wheat and corn in particular have become intrinsically linked. The increased development of second generation biofuels for the transport sector is likely to impact significantly on food production.

Where governments intervene, agricultural policies need to be consistent and long-term...

Whilst the conference did not seek consensus among participants, several common themes emerged from many of the discussions. Where governments intervene, agricultural policies need to be consistent and long-term, and need to enable robust and dependable markets to develop, recognising the reality of farming, i.e. that it is private sector-driven, with small family farms and smallholdings remaining the backbone of global food production. China will have a critical role to play on both the demand and the supply side, and is likely to increase production significantly given the policies being put in place. Ongoing political support for agricultural production is critical at the national and international level, including a conclusion to the WTO Doha negotiations, which will help discipline agricultural protectionism which distorts markets and undermines investment in agriculture in developing countries . The issue of strategic reserves is a matter of some debate: many participants recognised the importance of a strategic reserve for emergencies, but there was also suspicion concerning international reserves and interest in a “virtual reserve” fund.

The conference was organised by Wilton Park in partnership with GMF and with additional support from the Syngenta Foundation and the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

The full conference report is available here.